As the Atlantic States Marine Fisheries Commission (ASMFC) prepares for a November vote on possible new Chesapeake Bay menhaden restrictions, fishermen and workers on both sides of the debate say the outcome could hit their livelihoods.

The Bay Journal reported Oct. 2 that bait fishermen in Maryland and Virginia are facing declining menhaden catches and rising costs, while employees of Ocean Harvesters and Omega Protein worry additional restrictions on the reduction fishery could mean smaller paychecks or eventually fewer jobs.

ASMFC is considering changes under Draft Addendum II that could cut the Chesapeake Bay menhaden harvest cap by as much as 50 percent and establish quota periods intended to spread harvest throughout the season. The commission is scheduled to vote at the Nov. 10-11 meeting, with public comment open through Oct. 9.

The debate comes as fishermen on both sides describe growing economic pressure.

According to the Bay Journal, Maryland bait fishermen harvested about 1 million pounds of menhaden in 2024, compared with as much as 10 million pounds in previous years. Robbie Wilson, a fourth-generation pound0net fisherman on Tilghman Island, Maryland, said rising diesel costs and weaker seafood demand could make this his last year targeting menhaden.

“It’s not worth the hassle,” Wilson told the Bay Journal. “The money’s not there.”

Virginia crabber Tyree Smith also told the publication that the menhaden he buys for bait now comes from outside the state, while the price has doubled and the fish have gotten smaller. Smith believes the reduction fishery is removing too many menhaden from the Bay and would like to see that harvest moved offshore.

But the Bay-specific science needed to answer some of those questions remains incomplete. The Bay Journal noted that no research has yet measured the size or health of the menhaden population specifically within Chesapeake Bay. Earlier this year, federal lawmakers provided $2.5 million to NOAA to conduct such a study.

For Ocean Harvesters crews, moving more fishing offshore brings the concern of safety into perspective.

Carolmane Diggs, a mate with Ocean Harvesters who began fishing alongside his father in 2011, said small vessels can face stronger winds and larger waves outside the Bay's protected waters. Diggs and other crew members are also paid based on the amount of fish caught, meaning reduced harvest can directly affect their income. Diggs told the Bay Journal he expects to lose about $10,000 this season following the most recent quota reduction.

As ASMFC's socioeconomic analysis states, there could be a point at which further reductions make the operation economically unviable rather than simply resulting in layoffs, though where that threshold lies remains unclear.

Meanwhile, environmental groups continue to argue that managers should act before Bay-specific research is complete, citing concerns about striped bass and osprey. “The science is years away, and the warning signs are worsening,” Will Poston, forage campaign manager with the Chesapeake Bay Foundation, told the Bay Journal.

The Atlantic coastwide menhaden stock is not considered overfished, and its biomass has remained relatively stable since the 1990s. However, effects on predators, bait fishermen, and the reduction of the fleet remain at the center of the debate.