California fishermen could face another difficult season as scientists track a strengthening El Niño that could bring warmer ocean conditions, shift fish distributions, and cause harmful algal blooms to the West Coast.

Federal scientists now put the chances of a “super” El Niño at 81 percent. While the exact effects on Northern California remain uncertain, according to The Press Democrat. Fishermen are already reporting unusual conditions on the water.

Commercial fisherman Dick Ogg told The Press that crews encountered rapidly changing water temperatures during the state’s commercial salmon opener in May, making it difficult to find the colder water typically associated with salmon.

The concern extends to Dungeness crab. Warmer ocean conditions can contribute to harmful algal blooms and change whale distribution, potentially increasing both domoic acid concerns and the risk of whale interactions with fishing gear.

California Department of Fish and Wildlife officials said they are already preparing for a potentially challenging 2026-27 Dungeness season. Management actions could include delaying the season or reducing gear depending on whale entanglement risk.

The situation has drawn comparisons to 2015-16, when a strong El Niño combined with a major marine heatwave and widespread domoic acid contamination. California’s Dungeness season was delayed for months, and 71 percent of the state’s crab boats stopped fishing during that season.

Another disruption could be particularly difficult for the state’s fishermen. The commercial salmon fleet only returned to the water this year following a three-year closure, while repeated delays and shortened Dungeness seasons have already cut into two of the North Coast fleet’s most important fisheries.

For now, scientists caution that it remains too early to know how strongly Northern California fisheries will be affected, but fishermen and state managers are watching ocean conditions closely as the 2026-27 crab season approaches.