At the Atlantic States Marine Fisheries Commission’s (ASMFC) 83rd Annual Meeting in Dewey Beach, Delaware, the Atlantic Menhaden Management Board is weighing a drastic cut to one of the coast’s most important forage fisheries. The board will consider new specifications for the 2026 through 2028 fishing years that could slash the coastwide total allowable catch (TAC) by more than half, from 233,550 metric tons to 108,450 metric tons, based on updated point benchmarks and committee projections.
According to an ASMFC report, the 2025 benchmark assessment identified a 37 percent decline in average menhaden biomass compared with prior models, largely due to revised natural mortality data. The ecological reference point (ERP) fishing mortality target was reduced from 0.19 to 0.15, meaning the current TAC now carries a 100 percent probability of exceeding the new limit. Even the recommended 108,450-ton TAC represents only a 50 percent chance of meeting sustainability goals, according to ASMFC.
The divide between industry and environmental groups
Public comments that have already been submitted to the board show a sharp divide between recreational and commercial interests. The American Sportfishing Association (ASA), Congressional Sportsmen’s Foundation, and other recreational coalitions urged the board to adopt the reduced TAC, calling it essential to rebuild striped bass stocks and uphold the integrity of the ERP framework. The ASA’s letter argued that “under the current TAC of 233,550 mt, projections show a 100 percent probability of exceeding the ERP F target- placing the menhaden stock and dependent predators at risk.”
The group stated that the Atlantic striped bass fishery alone generated nearly $13 billion annually and supports over 100,000 jobs. “If the Menhaden Board fails to manage the ERP F target, these sacrifices will be lost,” ASA said, also mentioning years of tightened recreational restrictions.
Conservation advocacy groups such as the Menhaden Defenders demanded an end to industrial reduction fishing and called for the quota to be capped at 75,616 mt —the current bait-fishery level. In their letter, they stated that the science “is unequivocal: the current management approach is failing,” citing the Technical Committee’s finding that biomass had fallen 60 percent since 2021 and warning that “even the 108,450 mt option gives only a coin-flip chance of sustainability.”
Commercial fishing group calls proposed cut “unscientific and absurd”
Commercial fishermen and their advocates see the proposed 55 percent reduction very differently. Dustin Delano, chief operating officer of the New England Fishermen’s Stewardship Association (NEFSA), called on commissioners to “reject this unscientific and absurd 55 percent reduction to menhaden quota.”
In a statement posted by NEFSA’s social media channels and shared in a press release, Delano warned that such a cut “would devastate menhaden crews, lobster and crab fisheries, and working waterfronts throughout New England.” He also added that “NEFSA calls for a fact-based quota reduction of no more than 10 percent, which would reduce the risk of overfishing to zero.”
The association argues that the ERP model’s ecosystem-based adjustment overstates risk and undercuts the economic realities of bait-dependent fisheries. Menhaden are a critical link in the Northeast’s lobster and crab supply chain, especially as herring and mackerel remain scarce. Delance said the ASMFC decision “should be based on the best science available, not activist pressure from environmental groups.”
The Menhaden Board’s debate has become a proxy for large tensions in U.S. fisheries policy: how to balance ecological precautions with working-waterfront economics. For recreational interests, menhaden represents the keystone prey species for striped bass, bluefish, and whales, a public resource whose value is best realized in the water. For commercial harvesters and bait dealers, however, menhaden is an economic necessity that keeps boats and coastal communities afloat.
The ASMFC’s supplemental report noted that 752 written comments were received ahead of the meeting. While each side claims to be acting on behalf of science, the commission's own technical documents acknowledge considerable uncertainty in its ERP model and reference points.
The Menhaden Board is also scheduled to meet on October 28, during the ASMFC’s annual meeting in Dewey Beach. Commissioners will review the 2025 benchmark assessment and ERP projections before setting the 2026- 2028 TAC and considering related items, such as the Chesapeake Bay quota allocation. The decision will set management policy for the next three years, as its impact will affect bait sheds, marinas, and the fishermen of New England, the greater Mid-Atlantic, and the Chesapeake Bay.
Whether the board lands closer to the 10 percent or 55 percent recession, Delano and other commercial leaders say they want to see menhaden science catch up to policy before jobs are lost. “The future of our working waterfronts depends on decisions grounded in data- not politics,” Delano said.
