A global salmon market report produced for the Alaska Seafood Marketing Institute predicts a drop in 2026 state harvests of all five species of Pacific salmon.
Harvest forecasts are also down from previous five-year averages for sockeye, keta, and Chinook salmon, according to the report released Thursday, June 11, by McKinley Research Group in Anchorage.
Global sockeye harvests, meanwhile, are forecast to see a 15% drop from the previous five-year average, driven by a 21% forecasted drop in Alaska's Bristol Bay, home of the world's largest run of wild red salmon.
The record high harvest of sockeye salmon in Bristol Bay was 60.1 million reds in 2022.
After record-low harvests in 2023, ex-vessel harvest prices on sockeyes rose in 2024 and 2025, but still fell below the 10-year average. However, wholesale sockeye values and early season base prices indicate potential for higher ex-vessel prices this year, the report said.
The global pink salmon harvest is forecast to drop 17% from the 2022/2023 average, largely due to a 21% drop predicted for Russian harvests. Pink salmon in Alaska, meanwhile, is forecast to be up, but still low compared to long-term harvests. Ex-vessel prices for Alaska pinks were at their lowest level in over a decade in 2024 and similarly low in 2025, the report said.
Coho salmon harvests in Alaska are forecast to be up 5% compared to the previous five-year average. The report noted that 88% of the world's coho fish are farmed in Chile, with another 6% in Japan. Russia and the United States cumulatively catch about 5% of the wild capture fish.
Keta salmon harvests worldwide are forecast to drop 26% from the previous five-year average, prompted by a forecast 11% decline in the Alaska keta harvest and a collapse of Japan's keta runs over the past three years.
The forecast for Southeast Alaska is for the smallest keta harvest since 2021. Prince William Sound's harvest forecast is set at similar to 2025 and above the five-year average. While average keta ex-vessel prices rose in 2025 after a four-year low, prices stayed relatively low in comparison to the 30-year high of $1.20 a pound in 2022, the report said.
Like coho, the majority of global Chinook salmon harvested is farmed. In 2024, 76% of those kings were produced in New Zealand. The remainder came mostly from Alaska, California, Washington state, and Canada.
Chinook harvests in Alaska have declined for most of the past decade and are forecast to drop again in 2026. The anticipated decline of Chinook harvests in Southeast Alaska is cited as a significant driver of the overall 2026 forecast, the report said.
